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October 2019 saw new Ancestry ethnicity estimates rolled out. This article will show you how to understand and interpret them with precision. What you most likely have noticed between your past results and your current results are either NEW categories that were not there or OLD categories that have disappeared.
There are a lot of frustrated people out there. Unfortunately these new category changes are somewhat of a marketing balancing act.
“Robbing Peter to pay Paul”
What I’m sure you’ve already noticed is that these new changes in ethnicity estimate categories are usually very small percentages, 10% and below. This is what you need to keep your eye on: looking at what are called “low-confidence regions” as they are at the heart of understanding these new Ancestry ethnicity estimates for October 2019.
What most people have been frustrated by, my self included, is that these categorical changes have “robbed from Peter to pay Paul,” as the saying goes. A few (<10%) percents of larger categories have been stolen and reallocated into new, genetically-related sub categories.
In many cases it’s really just marketing sleight of hand! It’s like the saying “six of one, half a dozen of the other.”
Well, what is the purpose of doing that you might ask? The answer is two-fold. ONE, Ancestry obviously wants to drive user traffic back to their site and promote more active participation. TWO, Ancestry is genuinely working on upgrading its algorithms to create a better experience for its users in the future. I believe both are true.
New estimates dialogue box 
DNA dialogue box 
Transparency dialogue box
Here’s the cool part, and why I believe Ancestry is genuine in its attempt to add more categories to its Ancestry ethnicity estimates, although the outcome may seem a bit clumsy.
Take for example what many people are blustering about, the mysterious “Germanic Europe” category that has sprung up all over Ancestry and has been causing mass frustration and discord all over social media.
I now show 8% Germanic Europe which was never there before, and really shouldn’t be there based on my KNOWN and RESEARCHED ethnicity going back over 10 generations. However, if you read the fine print (click on the info icon, see image below), the truth is about these categories is revealed:
Your range of 0—23% comes from making multiple comparisons of your DNA to our reference panel. It includes other possible, but less likely, percentages.
Ancestry.com (DNA Origins page)
So, what that really says (and how you should actually interpret it) is that Ancestry really DOES NOT have any actual proof of this percentage but there are a few people within their gigantic reference panel that MAY exhibit a genetic tie to this area. It’s like the Wizard of Oz!
40,000 Reference Samples
Ancestry now has a whopping 40,000 reference samples to test against, still the largest in the industry compared to FTDNA, 23&Me, and Geni. I have links to view the entire reference sample list below.
What Ancestry lacks, however, is the historical and genealogical correlation of data! Ancestry runs our DNA against its industry-leading reference sample database but does NOT take into consideration our “paper trail” research that we have done in terms of our Ancestry trees nor the history of the regions to which we are being associated. It’s nonsense at times.
For a breakdown of all of the new Ancestry ethnicity reference samples and categories by region, visit their site: (https://www.ancestry.com/dna/lp/ancestry-dna-ethnicity-estimate-update). Still, it is actually quite impressive how they are improving in this area: up from 13,000 to 40,000!
If you would like to review and compare Ancestry’s last round of (August 2019) DNA updates to this one make sure you read my full review post below.
Historically Speaking, Ancestry Ethnicity Estimates Are Rubbish
While I have always lauded Ancestry for being super transparent and pursuing the highest level of accuracy for DNA testing results, the one thing they are lacking is providing a better HISTORICAL CONTEXT to their ethnicity estimates.
Let’s go back to the “Germanic Europe” category. If you read the “historical” description below, it offers absolutely nothing to a person looking for answers as to why that category is anywhere near relevant!
Sure all the German phrases and names may make some queasy with delight, but it really is a hindrance overall, historically speaking. It requires much more complexity and specificity.
For me, since I am 50% British Isles (mostly English) and this new “Germanic Europe” category has stolen 8 percentage points from my KNOWN and RESEARCHED genealogy, I can easily fill in the blanks.
The explanation is simple, the region on the map includes the northern-most tip of Germany just below Denmark (the Schleswig-Holstein region) it is historically accurate to realize that my ancestors were of Anglo-Saxon origin. We are not talking recent genealogy, but deep ancestry.
My advice for these aberrant low-confidence regions is to do your own research into the deep ancestry of your origins. I bet you will find the connection that you are looking for to explain these new ethnicity categories.
Europe was a very active and mobile region over the last 40,000 years! Migrations, wars, tribal growth into kingdoms has all presented us in the modern age with a patchwork of deep ancestral roots to many parts of the continent. Just think Vikings!
I do applaud Ancestry for trying, however. They are continually improving how they present our results in terms of regional histories and DNA Stories. For example, with the Migrations feature I can see that being a helpful starting point for those who have only tested their DNA but have not yet begun doing actual genealogical research.
There’s No Substitute For Research
Having said that, there is no substitute for research! Although it is fun to run with these new Ancestry ethnicity estimates and possibly take them too seriously, only actual, scientific family history research will prove them out.
What baffles me and others is why Ancestry is yet to take all of the research we have done on their site and not integrate it into our genetic results in terms of our DNA Story.
Why not start integrating our Ancestry Trees into their DNA algorithms? They claim they do but they really don’t. If Ancestry is looking at providing better and more accurate results for those that pay for them, why would you not at least be able to factor in the presence of any smaller percent category based on your state family tree research?
Well, I think we all know that the obvious answer is that there is a lot of crappy research out there! Once bad information is introduced into a system, database, or algorithm it can become systemic. Just like the Borg. However, that’s not to say that it’s NOT impossible.
If Ancestry had taken into account my Ancestry family tree, then this “Germanic Europe” sub category would not have appeared. OR, offer some sort of visual designation on our results indicating that it is a deep ancestral occurrence – like a different color or styled line. Just a thought, and a genius one at that!
This issue also speaks to Ancestry’s lackluster mapping tools, which I have harped on over the last few years as needing drastic improvement! If the company invested in some really good geolocation tools, their stock would surely skyrocket.
Ancestry Ethnicity Estimates Transparency
If you are looking for more information about your Ancestry ethnicity estimates, then there are several links to help you get more information. As I’ve continually said, Ancestry has been very transparent in how it presents its results and there are loads of FAQ pages and reports on their site. I would suggest reading them.
- https://www.ancestry.com/cs/dna-help/ethnicity/faq#mightchange
- https://www.ancestry.com/cs/dna-help/communities
- https://www.ancestrycdn.com/dna/static/pdf/whitepapers/WhitePaper_2018_1130_update.pdf (pdf version)
- https://www.ancestry.com/dna/lp/ancestry-dna-ethnicity-estimate-update
You can also still view your previous ethnicity estimates on Ancestry; however, you can no longer view them on their interactive map. They are downloadable in a PDF version. You can download those from your results page.
Leave a comment or question below. How have your results changed? Are you happy with your new results? Have the results of your other family members changed? How would you rate your new ethnicity categories?
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I’m just not convinced of the importance of the new Germanic Europe, since basically Ancestry took 9% of my England, Wales & NW Europe & 3% of my Ireland & Scotland to make up the 12% Germanic Europe. Since my paper trail does show ancestors from the latter area, they are few & farther out in generations from me. So, I don’t understand this high a %, unless it represents some ancient DNA????
I think it’s definitely some sort of marketing ploy myself. Especially asking the question: what is Germanic Europe anyway? The Anglo-Saxons were Germanic tribes as were the Vikings and others that ransacked Europe from tip to toe. Ancestry did the same in Eastern Europe where %s of categories have dropped and they’ve been replaced with a Russian element. It’s goofy!